Sunday, April 7, 2013

April in the "D"

      Since my last post a lot has changed in the world, I spent a week in Florida where it was too cold and I couldn't even get to Lakeland to see a Tigers game.  I found out I have to have rotator cuff surgery and will have my right arm immobilized for six weeks.  Spring training ended and the regular season started for the Tigers, the NHL trade deadline came and went and The Red Wings didn't make a move.  The Tigers signed an old friend and the Wings just can't seem to get any breathing room in the race for the playoffs.  Every year when April rolls around Fox Sports Detroit calls it April in the "D" because of the start of the Tigers regular season, the start of the playoffs for the Red Wings and if their really lucky, playoffs for the Pistons.  It is always a time of great hope in the hearts of Detroit fans, every year they believe this will be the year the Tigers win a World Series and the Wings will win another Stanley Cup, of course this is not often the case but April is always an expectant time in the "D".
       I always start to get butterflies around this time, I can feel the playoffs and can't wait to see the Wings hoist another Cup, but this year not only is that unlikely to happen but their streak of 21 years of making the playoffs is in real jeopardy.  The Wings can't catch a break and get a little breathing room in that seventh playoff spot.  In their last eleven games they are 8-3 but still only six point ahead of the 13th place Dallas Stars.  How am I supposed to feel secure going into my surgery if I can't even be sure the Wings are going to be playing come the end of April.  What can Detroit do to increase their chances to see their playoff streak extend to 22 years?  Well, the first thing is stop giving up goals!  I know this sounds simplistic and it is but it also is the key to winning.  With the Wings offense just not up to their usual levels their defense need to step up and shut down the opposition.  The offense doesn't need to look up at the scoreboard and see they are behind because, unlike past years, this team just can't make big time comebacks.  In the last eight games the Wings were a disgusting -42 as a team!  That needs to change and change fast, they have started to get players back from injury and their defense is as healthy as it has ever been so they should be able to turn that around.  The Wings haven't been known for a bruising defense but they are still giving teams a running start at their end, they need to start standing those forwards  up and clogging the passing zones.  The other team is still getting way to may chances around the net and Detroit's defense needs to do a better job of clearing out the crease.  The forwards aren't above blame in this instance because they seem to be hanging around the blueline instead of collapsing to the net and helping the defense.  The Wings also seem to have concrete in their skates and are getting beat to every loose puck, getting run down by defensemen on breakaways and just don't seem to be as fast as the other teams.  
      After not making any moves at the trade deadline the Wings announced the signing of coveted free agent defenseman Danny DeKeyser.  He just finished his junior season at Western Michigan University and after going undrafted in this year's NHL entry draft, has much sought after by at least five teams.  DeKeyser decided to sign with this boyhood favorite Red Wings and stay near his childhood home in southeastern Michigan.  He is 6'3" and 205 lbs and amassed 12 goals, 37 assists for 49 points in 138 games for the Broncos.  He will be a welcome addition to a defensive corps in need of a stay at home defensive presence, DeKeyser was named the CCHA defensive defensman of the year the last two seasons and should add another hitter to the Wings blueline.  DeKeyser has already played two games and although hasn't made the stat sheet has played well for a young defenseman.  Mike Babcock is showing confidence in him playing him in shorthanded situations.  If the Wings can string a few wins together and get some of the other teams to lose then they should make the playoffs and once they enter the post season you can't tell what will happen.  Of course Red Wings hockey isn't the only game in town right now and the other team for the Detroit fans to follow are the Tigers.
      After the World Series appearance for Detroit last year expectations are high going into this season.  They still have the reigning American League MVP and Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Austin Jackson, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.  Victor Martinez is back from injury and with the addition of right fielder Torii Hunter the Tigers seem to have a potent lineup as least on paper.  Now whether that will translate to success on the field, is another matter.  There are still some questions that need to be answered as the season starts; Will the bats come alive unlike last year.  Who will fill the closer role?  How well will Martinez play this year and can the pitching staff match the success of last year? 
      Last season the Tigers looked like they would have a potent lineup and score a lot of runs but that never quite happened.  The bats started the season as cold as the weather and except for some brief flares stayed that way.  A team that I thought would be scoring ten runs a game were struggling to score five.  This lack of offense effects every aspect of the game and everybody suffered because of it.  Will 2013 be a replay of this or will their lineup live up to it potential?  So far this season it seems to be the former in the Tigers six game so far they have scored a grand total of 24 runs an average of four a game, and that includes to game against the hated Yankees were they scored eight in each game.  If you knock out those two games the Tigers have scored two runs a game.  Of course it is early and the weather is cold but that is what we said last year and it never changed.  Austin Jackson, Torii Hunter and Miguel Cabrera have all had good starts but just as last year it drops off precipitately.  After those players Alex Avila is hitting .167 and Victor Martinez is hitting .143.  Jhonny Peralta, another lightning rod for criticism in the off season because of lack of production, is hitting .250 and left fielder Andy Dirks is hitting .154.  If that doesn't change this will be a long, long season for the Tigers and barring another late season swoon by Chicago or Minnesota they will miss the playoffs.        
      In my last post  I wrote that Bruce Rondon had the inside track to be named the closer and it was his job to lose, well, that is exactly what he did.  After a very shaky spring, where he showed a lot of wildness and lacked a strong second pitch, Jim Leyland decided to send him to Toledo for more seasoning.  You have to remember that he had never pitched in the majors and had only eight AAA innings coming into this year.  I'm not saying he won't be the closer of the future or even later this season perhaps, but he needs more experience at the higher levels of baseball.  That said, it still doesn't answer the closer question.  Leyland has said he is perfectly comfortable with a closer by committee approach, I however am not, the Tigers need to name a closer and stick with him.  So much of the closer role is mental and a bullpen staff not being sure who will be called on in any game to close, doesn't allow them to mentally prepare.  Dennis Eckersley and John Smoltz, both great closers and starters have said the mental preparation for closing a game is so much more important then the mental prep to start.  If the mental aspect of closing isn't important then every MLB pitcher could do it and that has been proven time and time again to not be the case.  Phil Coke has been called on in the two save situations so far this season and got the save in one and blew it in the other.  After the blown save GM Dave Dombrowski announced the signing of 2012 Tigers closer Jose Valverde to a minor league contract.  This was met with mixed reaction with fans upset at the signing and baseball insiders saying it was a smart move.  According to reports Valverde has dropped 20 pounds, has regained velocity on his fastball and is looking more like the perfect Valverde of 2011 then the Valverde that pitched himself out of a job in the playoffs of 2012.  The contract has an opt out clause for the Tigers, if they don't feel he will work out by May 5th then they can release him with no penalty and they are no worse off then now.  If he can recapture the 2011 form when he was 43 for 43 in save opportunities then the Tigers can have a valuable piece of the puzzle that would allow then to return to the Fall Classic.
      Another piece of that puzzle would be the play of Victor Martinez, if Martinez can play at the level he did in 2011. In 2012 after the opposition got through Prince Fielder the rest of the lineup was pretty easy.  The return of Martinez will add another big bat to the middle of the lineup, further protecting Cabrera and Fielder.  The season Martinez will have is anybody's guess, after missing the entire 2012 season with a knee injury he could go either way.  He could return with a vengeance well rested and ready to go or he could be out of sorts and trying to catch up.  If he is lagging behind it could be a long season for V-Mart and he will hear the questions from the press and maybe even the boos of the fans.  If he is in 2011 form the Tigers could go deep into the post season.  Of course hitting isn't the only issue for the Tigers they need their starters to be as good as they were last year.
      On paper, a phrase you hear a lot in regards to the Tigers, Detroit has one of the best one-two punches in any rotation with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, a pretty good number three in Doug Fister but after that there are concerns.  Anibal Sanchez needs to pitch as good as he did done the stretch and Rick Porcello need to prove that Leyland made the right decision in naming him the fifth starter.  There shouldn't be any worries about Verlander and he should contend for the Cy Young award and the strikeout title.   unless he has the worst season of his career.  Verlander has had 17 wins or more in six of his seven seasons and this year should be no different, unless he has the worst season of his career.  That gives the Tigers maybe the most feared number one pitcher in baseball, what about number two?  MLB analyst and World Series champion catcher Tim McCarver said before the start of the season this year that he believes Max Scherzer will win the American League Cy Young Award.  The 28 year Missouri native has pitched for the Tigers since 2010 and has averaged 14 wins, 196 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.89 in that span.  2012 was a break out year for Scherzer where he finished second to Verlander in strikeouts and had a career high in wins.  We will see if he can build on that success this season and take it to the next level but I think a Cy Young season might be a little over optimistic but I hope I'm wrong.  The third spot is more then ably held down by Doug Fister and he should have another good season, he has averaged 97 strikeouts and a minuscule 21 walks in his two seasons with Detroit and his strikeouts should only go up as his average ERA of 2.65 goes down.  After Fister doubt creeps into the rotation Sanchez ended 2012 on a high note but struggled after his trade to Detroit ended the season with a 4-6 record, 3.74 ERA, 15 walks and 57 K's.  There was a lot of chatter about Sanchez's fate in the off season but the Tigers decided he needed a full season with Detroit and signed him to five year deal worth $80 million, he will now need to prove that it was a wise choice and there isn't a better way to do that then good pitching.  The biggest question in the rotation is Rick Porcello in the fifth spot.  Porcello was the only Tiger pitcher, pitching a full season, that had a losing record, he had the highest ERA among the starters and gave up more hits then any other American League pitcher.  In the off season he was dangled as trade bait and there were many, myself included, that said the Tigers would be better off without him.  After much thought and the failure to get a decent trade offer, it was decided to have a competition between Porcello and Drew Smyly for the fifth spot, the loser ending up in Toledo.  Porcello had a strong spring and won the job but he will be watched like a hawk every start and a few bad ones will restart this debate all over again.  If the rotation can perform up to expectations then a good season might be the result.
      Those are the highlights for April in the "D" the most exciting time to be a fan of Detroit sports.  It is a time of great hope and great expectations and unless the Lions finally pull their heads out the only time of fulfilled expectations.  So there is only one more thing to say: Go Red Wings and Go Tigers!                 
                

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