With 15 days until opening day the Tigers still have some issues to resolve and some positions to nail down. The fifth starter spot with Rick Porcello battling against Drew Smyly, who will back up Andy Dirks in left field Quintin Berry or Jeff Kobernus and who will the closer be, Bruce Rondon or a closer by committee approach. If the Tigers can solve these issues and everything else works out then 2013 should be a year the Tigers can make another run at their first title since 1984.
The fifth starter spot is a key position and both Porcello and Smyly have made good cases for being named to that spot. Porcello has not walked a batter this spring and has fanned 17, while Smyly is on a nine inning scoreless streak and has a ERA of 2.00. With their play this spring both pitchers have made Jim Leyland's decision very hard. Leyland has said he gives more weight to a players track record rather than stats from the spring, where they might not face a whole lineup of Major League talent. Looking back at 2012 Porcello, who was the fifth starter, was 10-12 with an ERA of 4.59, walking 44 and striking out 107 in 176-1/3 innings of work. Smyly, on the other hand, working out of the bullpen and starting, was 4-3 with a 3.99 ERA, walked 33 and fanned 94 in 99-1/3 innings. If we break that down a little better to account for Porcello's larger number of innings it looks like this: Porcello has 5.6 innings per game, 1.4 walks per game, 3.5 strikeouts per game, .25 walks per inning and .61 strikeouts per inning. Smyly has 4.3 innings per game, 1.4 walks per game, 4.1 strikeouts per game, .33 walks per inning and .95 K's per inning. What do all these numbers mean? It means, Smyly is more of a strikeout pitcher then Porcello but Porcello walks less batters per inning. Of course this doesn't help much so looking even deeper, Porcello surrenders 1.28 hits per inning and .25 homers per game, while Smyly gives up .93 hits per inning and .50 homeruns per game. factoring these stats in I think that Leyland will keep Porcello as the fifth starter but he will have a short leash and Smyly will be there to pick up the slack as well as any injuries that effect the rotation. The rotation isn't the only area where the Tigers need to make some decisions.
How will the Tigers fill the closer role? Will they go with untested Bruce Rondon or a committee to close games? Rondon started out very wild this spring but has come on lately even fanning three batters on eight pitches in one game. Will his wildness be his undoing or will Leyland overlook it and write it off to nerves? Rondon had never thrown a Major League pitch before his first spring training appearance and only had eight AAA innings last year. MLB.com has named him the Tigers number two prospect but it would be out of character for Leyland to go with an untested player in such an important role, unless he's forced to by injury. So if Rondon isn't the guy then who will close this year? There are several pitchers that will combine to fill the role. Phil Coke, Octavio Dotel, Al Alburquerque, Darin Downs and Joaquin Benoit could all serve time in the closer role but I would expect the bulk of the work to fall on the shoulders of Alburquerque and Coke. Coke was the closer in the playoffs and did a great job, during the regular season he was the situational lefty but Downs or Duane Below could take over that role if Leyland wants to have Coke take the majority of the closer appearances. Dotel has been a closer in the past and could do it again for Detroit but Leyland might not want to move him from his position as the seventh inning guy. The same goes for Benoit as the eighth inning man. Alburquerque showed some wildness last year and in his last appearence this spring gave up four runs on one hit and three walks in 2/3 of an inning. If he can solve his control problems he can be a great closer but that remains to be seen. So either Rondon will step up or Leyland will work hard every game to decide who will close.
It appears Andy Dirks has won the starting left fielder position but the question remains who will back him up? The two candidates are Quintin Berry, the surprise of last year, and Jeff Kobernus, who was acquired from the Boston Red Sox for second baseman Justin Henry. Both players have plus speed and decent gloves, the major difference is Berry's Major League experience. Kobernus has never played a regular season big league inning and Berry played himself onto the roster last year. In 2012 Berry hit .258 with two homeruns, 29 RBI's and 21 stolen bases. In 290 minor league games, Kobernus hit .279 with nine homeruns 115 RBI's and 29 stolen bases. I'm sure Leyland will go with Berry, the known quantity, but Kobernus will be in Toledo just waiting for Berry to have a bad start.
If the Tigers can provide answers to these issues and everybody stays healthy, the Tigers can make a deep run in the playoffs and maybe even get back to the World Series, which would be their third trip in seven years. The ultimate goal of all these moves is for Detroit to finally end their 29 year championship drought. If there ever was a city that deserves a championship it is Detroit and I hope this is the year that will happen.
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