Detroit Tigers Trade Rumors

       I read a good article yesterday by Jason Martinez MLB Lead Writer with The Bleacher Report about each team's best trade bait and what they might bring in return.  Click on this link to read the story.  http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1655745-updating-each-mlb-teams-biggest-trade-asset-heading-into-june  Jason said Detroit's best trade bait is Toledo Mud Hens outfielder Nick Castellanos and the best way for him to help the Tigers would be to bring a impact corner outfielder to Detroit in a trade.  Mr. Martinez must be talking about replacing Andy Dirks, because he can't be talking about Torii Hunter.  Hunter is hitting .312 with 15 doubles, two homeruns and 23 RBI's, not numbers you need to replace.  Dirks, on the other hand is hitting .247 with four doubles, five homers and 16 RBI's, still, not horrible numbers but apparently something the Tigers need to replace in his opinion.  In their last ten games Hunter is hitting even better; .325 with three doubles, a homerun, two RBI's, four walks and nine strikeouts.  Dirks is hitting .214 with 1 double, one RBI, one walk and nine strikeouts.  So again it must be Dirks that we are talking about trading.  The question then becomes, who should the Tigers try to get in return?  The outfielders listed in Jason's article were Corey Hart with Milwaukee, Josh Willingham with the Twins and Michael Morse with Seattle. 
      Corey Hart, 31, has not played this season after off season knee surgery.  His 2012 stats were .270 with 35 doubles, 30 homeruns, 83 RBI's 44 walks and 151 strikeouts.  However, who knows what type of player he'll be when he returns.  The Brewers think he will be ready to start a rehab assignment in the next week or two but they are not positive.  The Tigers do not need to trade for a player who will be coming off an injury and therefore an unknown quantity.  One need look no further than Victor Martinez to see the impact a knee injury can have on a player and Detroit doesn't need that headache.  In addition Hart is making ten million dollars this season and will be a free agent when the season is over.  I don't think the Tigers need to trade a good minor league prospect for an injured player that will most likely be a partial season rental player. 
      Willingham is hitting .211 with ten doubles, ten homeruns, 29 RBI's, 33 walks and 57 strikeouts.  In his last ten he is .210 with one double, two homeruns, six RBI's, six walks and eleven strikeouts.  Willingham is 34 years old and I wonder if his age will start to catch up to him as this season wears on, although he could be another version of former teammate, Hunter.  a .211 average is nothing to write home about in fact it is even less then Dirks and I'm sure Dirks is a better defensive outfielder then Willingham.  Willingham is making seven million dollars this season and is scheduled to make another seven million next year before becoming a free agent after the 2014 season.  So if the Tigers did acquire him in a trade, which I think is unlikely because the Twins wouldn't trade to a team in their own division, at least it wouldn't be a half season rental.  
      Morse, who is also 31, is hitting .254 with four doubles, eleven homeruns, 21 RBI's, 15 walks and 46 strikeouts.  In his last ten games he is .228 with one homerun, four RBI's, four walks and seven strikeouts.  He is making 6.75 million dollars this year and will be a free agent after the season, again another case of a rental player, this one a little cheaper then Willingham but not by much.  He has the best average and the most homeruns of the three players this year.  The Mariners are already 11-1/2 games back in the American League and aren't likely to make a run at the playoffs so come July they are going to be unloading contracts and looking for cheap, young players to fill the holes.  This is just the scenario the Tigers are looking for.  While I don't think that Morse is the best solution to this problem, in fact I'm not entirely sure there is a problem, he might fill a spot on the Tigers roster in their run to the post season.
      Are there any other areas the Tigers might need to shore up at the trade deadline?  I think the obvious choice is the closer spot.  There have been thousands of words written about Jose Valverde and his troubles last year, including a post in this blog and the Tigers signed him anyway.  Valverde has blown two save already this season, both in the last two weeks, and it might be time to end this experiment.  If the Tigers do decide to get rid of Valverde then who becomes the closer?  The obvious choice would be Bruce Rondon, currently the closer in Toledo.  He started the season in Detroit but after a few bad outings was sent back to the Mud Hens.  Since returning to AAA Rondon is 1-1 with a 0.84 ERA.  He has ten  saves and has giving up nine hits, eleven walks and 26 strikeouts in 21-1/3 innings.  Good stats but still a few too many walks.  He has made significant progress for someone with little AAA and Major League experience.  If Leyland and Dombrowski decide to go a different direction then where would they go?  Joaquin Benoit would be a good choice he is 1-0 with two saves, a 1.88 ERA, 16 hits, eight walks and 29 strikeouts in 24 innings of work but it appears Tiger fans are stuck with Valverde for now.  Dombrowski and Leyland have tabbed Rondon as the closer of the future and we just have to live with Valverde's ups and downs until Rondon is ready for the big time.

I'm Sorry Torii Hunter.

      Earlier this year I wrote a post saying I thought the signing of Torii Hunter was a big mistake, Mr. Hunter has proven me wrong and I owe him a apology.  Torii Hunter, I'm sorry I doubted you and your abilities, you have proven yourself worthy of wearing the Old English D and I hope this season is a big success for you and the Tigers.
      In that post I said that Hunter's stats weren't that much better then Brennan Boesch's and since Boesch is much younger I thought it would be more prudent to sign the younger player rather then risk signing the older one and finding out his best years are behind him and being stuck with a big contract.  So far this season Hunter is hitting .310 with 12 doubles, one triple, one homerun and 21 RBI's.  He is slugging .409 with 8 walks and 29 strikeouts.  His lack of walks and the large amount of strikeouts were also reasons I gave to oppose the signing but his production has outweighed those concerns.  Hunter is sixth on the Tigers in batting average, tied for first in doubles, third in RBI's and fifth in slugging percentage, pretty good for a guy who will be 38 in July and is playing for his third team.  I knew his defense would be better but I had no idea his offensive contributions would be this big.  Sure he won't hit as many homeruns as he has in the past but with Detroit that is not his job.  In a spring training interview he said that the key to hitting second is moving the lead off guy up and trying to get on base for the big guns behind him.  He said that not having to provide all the production will make his life easier and reduce stress for him.     
      Brennan Boesch on the other hand has been optioned to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre after hitting .209 with one double, one triple, two homeruns and five RBI's.  He was slugging .419 with two walks and six strikeouts in 43 at bats for the Yankees.  This, for a team with twelve men on the DL.  Obviously the Yankees didn't think too highly of Boesch's work and his biggest knock while with the Tigers, his lack of hitting, is still an issue.  So it seems that the Tigers made the right choice in letting Boesch go. 
      Apparently I'm still in Randy Smith (Detroit GM from 1996-2002) mode and assume that every trade or signing the Tigers make will fail.  I have to remember that Smith is long gone and Dave Dombrowski is a much better GM.  The trades to pick up Miguel Cabrera, Doug Fister and Austin Jackson and the signing of Hunter and Prince Fielder prove this.  No the Tigers just have to find the missing piece and finally win that elusive World Series Championship, the first since 1984.

Is Bruce Rondon the Future Closer for the Tigers?

      On of the biggest off season issues facing the Tigers after their loss in the World Series was the status of the closers role.  Jose Valverde had been the closer for the past two seasons but lost his job after two blown saves in the playoffs.  Valverde was informed after the season was over that the option for his last year on his contract would not be picked up, making him a free agent.  The question immediately became who would become the closer.  Phil Coke was the first name to come up but soon thereafter the rumor was that the Tigers would make, their 2012 Minor League Pitcher of the Year Bruce Rondon, the closer.  Going into spring training the question was still up in the air and Jim Leyland said that it would come down to who performed the best in Lakeland.  Bruce Rondon did not have a good spring with too many hard hit balls, too many walks and a few wild pitches and was sent to Toledo to start the year.
      After a rough start to the season for Coke and the rest of the bullpen, the Tigers announced the signing of Jose Valverde to a minor league contract, causing a stir in both the media and the fan base.  The talk was if he was so bad that they didn't renew his contract, why is Detroit signing him now?  The answer was in the way the contract was structured, the Tigers had an opt out clause that stated if they weren't happy with his pitching by May 30th then he could be released with no money owed.  Valverde and his agent, Scott Boras, said that Valverde had dropped weight, regained velocity on his fastball and regained control of his cutter, a pitch he had used in 2011 but stopped using in 2012, contributing to his lack of consistency.  So far this season he has performed up to his 2011 standards where he was 49-49 in save opportunities.  He is 2-2 in save opportunities with an ERA of 0.00, no hits, no walks and two strikeouts in three innings.
      After injuries to Phil Coke and Octavio Dotel, Rondon was recalled and had a few appearances with the Tigers.  In three games over 2-1/3 innings Rondon had no saves and an ERA of 11.57 while giving up three runs on five hits, two walks and one strikeout.  After being knocked around in his last appearance against the Twins he was sent back down to Toledo.  Does this mean he isn't a Major League caliber pitcher?  I don't think it does, You have to remember that Rondon is only 23 years old and didn't have any Major League experience until the 2-1/3 innings he had this year.  In fact he only had eight innings of AAA time last season after spending most of the season at Single A Lakeland and AA Erie.  So it is clear he is inexperienced to say the least.  With some more experience I think he can be very successful but there are a few things he needs to do.  He needs to learn to pitch rather than just throw hard, at the Major League level just throwing hard won't do the job for very long because hitters are too good at timing pitches.  If you can't keep them off balance by changing speeds and eye levels you will get rocked.  Rondon needs to learn to mix his pitches better and maybe even learn to throw a new one.  Right now he has a 100 MPH + 4 seam fastball, a two seam fastball and a cutter but if he adds a good changeup or a curveball it will allow him to make that fastball look even faster and give hitters a harder time.  I feel that with enough seasoning in the minors and some time with the great pitching coaches in the Tigers organization he can be the closer of the future for Detroit, if I'm wrong and he's a bust then we still have Papa Grande.        





    

Battles in Lakeland, as Spring Training Comes to a Close

      With 15 days until opening day the Tigers still have some issues to resolve and some positions to nail down.  The fifth starter spot with Rick Porcello battling against Drew Smyly, who will back up Andy Dirks in left field Quintin Berry or Jeff Kobernus and who will the closer be, Bruce Rondon or a closer by committee approach.  If the Tigers can solve these issues and everything else works out then 2013 should be a year the Tigers can make another run at their first title since 1984.
      The fifth starter spot is a key position and both Porcello and Smyly have made good cases for being named to that spot.  Porcello has not walked a batter this spring and has fanned 17, while Smyly is on a nine inning scoreless streak and has a ERA of 2.00.  With their play this spring both pitchers have made Jim Leyland's decision very hard.  Leyland has said he gives more weight to a players track record rather than stats from the spring, where they might not face a whole lineup of Major League talent.  Looking back at 2012 Porcello, who was the fifth starter, was 10-12 with an ERA of 4.59, walking 44 and striking out 107 in 176-1/3 innings of work.  Smyly, on the other hand, working out of the bullpen and starting, was 4-3 with a 3.99 ERA, walked 33 and fanned 94 in 99-1/3 innings.  If we break that down a little better to account for Porcello's larger number of innings it looks like this: Porcello has 5.6 innings per game, 1.4 walks per game, 3.5 strikeouts per game, .25 walks per inning and .61 strikeouts per inning.  Smyly has 4.3 innings per game, 1.4 walks per game, 4.1 strikeouts per game, .33 walks per inning and .95 K's per inning.  What do all these numbers mean?  It means, Smyly is more of a strikeout pitcher then Porcello but Porcello walks less batters per inning.  Of course this doesn't help much so looking even deeper, Porcello surrenders 1.28 hits per inning and .25 homers per game, while Smyly gives up .93 hits per inning and .50 homeruns per game.  factoring these stats in I think that Leyland will keep Porcello as the fifth starter but he will have a short leash and Smyly will be there to pick up the slack as well as any injuries that effect the rotation.  The rotation isn't the only area where the Tigers need to make some decisions.
      How will the Tigers fill the closer role?  Will they go with untested Bruce Rondon or a committee to close games?  Rondon started out very wild this spring but has come on lately even fanning three batters on eight pitches in one game.  Will his wildness be his undoing or will Leyland overlook it and write it off to nerves?  Rondon had never thrown a Major League pitch before his first spring training appearance and only had eight AAA innings last year.  MLB.com has named him the Tigers number two prospect but it would be out of character for Leyland to go with an untested player in such an important role, unless he's forced to by injury.  So if Rondon isn't the guy then who will close this year?  There are several pitchers that will combine to fill the role.  Phil Coke, Octavio Dotel, Al Alburquerque, Darin Downs and Joaquin Benoit could all serve time in the closer role but I would expect the bulk of the work to fall on the shoulders of  Alburquerque and Coke.  Coke was the closer in the playoffs and did a great job, during the regular season he was the situational lefty but Downs or Duane Below could take over that role if Leyland wants to have Coke take the majority of the closer appearances.  Dotel has been a closer in the past and could do it again for Detroit but Leyland might not want to move him from his position as the seventh inning guy.  The same goes for Benoit as the eighth inning man.  Alburquerque showed some wildness last year and in his last appearence this spring gave up four runs on one hit and three walks in 2/3 of an inning.  If he can solve his control problems he can be a great closer but that remains to be seen.  So either Rondon will step up or Leyland will work hard every game to decide who will close.
      It appears Andy Dirks has won the starting left fielder position but the question remains who will back him up?  The two candidates are Quintin Berry, the surprise of last year, and Jeff Kobernus, who was acquired from the Boston Red Sox for second baseman Justin Henry.  Both players have plus speed and decent gloves, the major difference is Berry's Major League experience.  Kobernus has never played a regular season big league inning and Berry played himself onto the roster last year.  In 2012 Berry hit .258 with two homeruns, 29 RBI's and 21 stolen bases.  In 290 minor league games, Kobernus hit .279 with nine homeruns 115 RBI's and 29 stolen bases.  I'm sure Leyland will go with Berry, the known quantity, but Kobernus will be in Toledo just waiting for Berry to have a bad start.
      If the Tigers can provide answers to these issues and everybody stays healthy, the Tigers can make a deep run in the playoffs and maybe even get back to the World Series, which would be their third trip in seven years.  The ultimate goal of all these moves is for Detroit to finally end their 29 year championship drought.  If there ever was a city that deserves a championship it is Detroit and I hope this is the year that will happen.           

Goodbye Brennan Boesch

      Springtime in Florida and Arizona is quite often bittersweet our favorite players in uniform in the sun playing ball.  Unfortunately, not everybody from last year is with the same team this year.  I’m sure Angel’s fans are sad to see Torii Hunter go and Detroit fans are happy to see him arrive but with that arrival has to come the departure of someone else and this year that someone is Brennan Boesch.  Boesch started off his Tigers career with a bang, in 2010 he hit a double off the wall on his first major league pitch.  He was MLB Rookie of the Month for May and June, Tigers Player of the Month for June, topped all AL rookies with 14 homeruns and 67 RBI’s and finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting.  In 2011 he hit .283 with 16 homeruns and 54 RBI’s before being sidelined with a torn ligament in his left hand.  In 2012 his numbers went way down and he finished the season with a .240 average and 12 homeruns and 54 RBI’s.  After the 2012 season the Tigers signed Torii Hunter making Boesch expendable, although Detroit signed Boesch anyway, to a one year deal worth $2.3 million. 
      There was lots of speculation, when Hunter was signed as to Boesch’s fate.  Hunter hit .313 with 16 homers and 92 RBI’s for the Angels in 2012 but had more strikeouts and half as many walks as Boesch.  The reasons given for the signing of Hunter was his defensive play.  The sabremetrics stats used to measure this are: runs saved, defensive replacement value and balls reached.  These stats say that Hunter is a much better defensive right fielder then Boesch and that put another nail in Boesch’s coffin.  The Tigers had been trying to work out a trade for Boesch all spring, but did not get any offers they thought were fair and weren’t prepared to give him away.  With Boesch’s poor performance in Lakeland this year, Detroit had the chance to send Boesch to AAA Toledo without having to clear waivers but in a testament to the depth of the Tigers minor league rosters, the decision was made to give him his outright release.  The decision was made on Thursday because that was the last day Boesch would have been able to be released without the Tigers being on the hook for the whole $2.3 million they had just signed him for.  As it stands Detroit will have to pay him $400,000 and any other Major League team would be able to pick him up without penalty.  I wish Brennan all the luck in the world, he was one of my favorite Tiger players of late, and I hope he catches on with another team, as long as it’s a National League team

A $200 Million Pitcher?

      Will the Tigers make Justin Verlander the first $200 million pitcher?  He made comments in a recent interview with Jeff Passen about making 200 million dollars in his next deal.  Verlander becomes a free agent after the 2014 season.  Should Detroit or any other team, pay that much for a player that only plays once every fifth day?   Some teams think so, in February 2013 Felix Hernandez signed a seven year contract extension with the Seattle Mariners worth $175 Million.  In December 2012 Zach Greinke reached a six year deal worth $147 Million with the Dodgers.  All three pitchers are similar both in age and stats so what would make Verlander worth $200 Million?  Verlander has been an All-Star more times than Greinke and Hernandez put together.  Justin was the Rookie of the year in 2006, AL MVP in 2011, the same year he won the Cy Young, threw his second no-hitter and won the pitching triple crown.  That is a pretty impressive resume and I'm sure he thinks if Hernandez can make $175 Million with his body of work then $200 Million shouldn't be an issue. 

      Hernandez is four years younger, has a lower career ERA, more strikeouts, a Cy Young Award and has thrown a perfect game but no league MVP, no triple crown and he has less wins and more losses then Verlander.  Greinke is one year younger then Verlander, he has less wins, more losses, a higher ERA and less strikeouts.  Greinke is a one time All-Star and won the Cy Young Award.  An examination of the reasons Hernandez and Greinke got such large contracts might be helpful to understand the reason Verlander would think Detroit would be interested in making him the highest paid pitcher in baseball.

      Seattle has made the post season four times in their history but haven’t been there in eleven years and haven’t been deep into the playoffs since losing to the Yankees in the American League Championship Series in 2001.  The Mariners moved to their present home, Safeco Field, in 1999.  The facility was paid for at tax payer expense and the Mariners have been trying to rebuild feelings after nearly moving the team.  In other words the Mariners are looking to win and win now, at any cost.  King Felix is the cornerstone of an otherwise weak pitching staff and the Mariners, who are trying to be relevant again, didn't have a choice in giving him a huge deal. 

      The Dodgers, on the other hand, are spending like money is going out of style in a quest to return their troubled franchise to prominence.  The Dodgers haven’t won a World Series since 1988 and have missing the playoffs the last three years.  The Dodgers have suffered several controversies including the divorce of owner Frank McCourt, the 2009 bankruptcy and the tragic 2011 beating of a Giants fan.  All of these have tarnished the reputation of the storied franchise.  The new owners, the Guggenheim Group, are trying to erase these images from the minds of baseball fans, with a win now attitude.  The signing Greinke was just the latest step in that process.  Greinke is just the latest addition to a pitching staff that boasts the likes of Josh Beckett, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang and 2011 Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw.  The rest of the Dodgers roster is also full of big names like Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. The Dodgers are obviously out to win it all and win as soon as possible.  So we can see that the signings of Greinke and Hernandez were motivated by concerns of the franchise, do the Tigers have the same or similar issues?    

      Is Detroit in the same shoes as the Mariners or the Dodgers?  I don’t think so, the Tigers have great fan relations and aren’t trying to earn back fans after a new stadium deal.  The Tigers have made the playoffs the last two years and been to the World Series twice since 2006.  Detroit is also not mired in any controversies and aren’t attempting to erase the memories of fans.  They have a strong rotation, after Verlander, the Tigers have Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello.  The rest of the roster is well stocked with big names including reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez.  
      If it isn't any of the reasons I have attributed  to the Mariners or the Dodgers then what would posses the Tigers to pay $200 Million for a pitcher?  The reason: Tiger fans deserve a World Championship they have waited patiently since 1984 and if any city needs a title it is Detroit and the key part of that title is good pitching and the key to good pitching for Detroit is Justin Verlander and Mike Ilitch, Dave Dombroskl and Jim Leyland know that Verlander is good for at least 17 wins a season and his pitching makes everybody else better and all those reasons are good enough to make Justin Verlander the highest paid pitcher in MLB history.

Tigers Spring Training 2013

Is Bruce Rondon ready to be the closer for the Tigers in 2013?  Will Victor Martinez be able to contribute to the Tigers at the level he was before the injury?  Will Torii Hunter work out for Detroit?  These are the big question facing the Tigers as they meet in Lakeland for spring training.  If the answers to all these questions turn out to be yes, then it should be a very successful year for the Tigers.  After the disappointment of last year’s performance in the World Series, being swept by San Francisco, Detroit is looking to make that last step and win their first title since 1984.

      A good closer is one of the big steps in the quest for a title.  Last year Jose Valverde was the closer but lost his job in the post season after two bad outings, including a blown save, and was allowed to go to free agency.  As soon as this was announced all the talk centered around who would replace Papa Grande?  Early indications were that Tigers minor league pitcher of the year Bruce Rondon had the inside edge.  In fact Jim Leyland himself said it was Rondon’s Job to lose.  Let’s take a look at Mr. Rondon was born in Valencia Venezuela he will turn 23 on December 9^th 2013 he stands 6’2” 190lbs he throws and hits right.  He fits the profile of the prototypical closer- High strikeout rates, occasionally unhittable stuff, but mixed in with bouts of wildness.  He has 100+MPH velocity and at least three pitches.  A fastball, a changeup and a slider and, he might be trying to add another one.  Dave Dombrowski said he is a “rare talent” and he also stated he would probably be the closer in 2013.  So the powers that be have blessed Rondo as the closer, it is still to be seen if he can do it.  He started out 2012 at Class A West Michigan and was promoted to AAA Toledo after appearing in the Midwest League All-Star Game, where he struck out two batters both on fastballs over 100 MPH.  Rondon only threw eight innings at Toledo before the end of the season, which is not much of a body of work to look at, but Dombrowski and Leyland must be very sure about him.  If the Tigers have any hope of repeating their trip to the World Series and winning then a solid closer is vital.  Time will tell if Bruce Rondon will be that closer or if the search will continue.

      Another important question for the Tigers going into spring training is the status of Victor Martinez.  How will the injury and the year off effect him?  Martinez had torn his ACL in off-season workouts before the start of spring training in 2012.  He had surgery to repair the tear and was out the entire 2012 season.  The Tigers missed his bat in 2012 and had to rely on Delmon Young to fill the gap.  With the return of Martinez, young became disposable and was allowed to go to free agency.  Young is good but his numbers just don’t compare to V-Mart.  In 2012 Young hit .267 with 18 homeruns, 74 RBI’s, 20 walks and 112 strikeouts.  In 2011 Martinez hit .330 with 12 homers, 103 RBI’s, 46 walks and 51 strikeouts.  Martinez is also a switch hitter rather than just a right handed hitter like Young.  The question becomes; will Martinez be able to make a comeback and play at the level he did on 2011?  If he can make a full recovery and comes even close to the numbers he put up in 2011, then the Tigers will have another significant bat in their lineup.  Right now it looks like it will be Austin Jackson leading off, Torii Hunter hitting second, Miguel Cabrera up third, Prince Fielder in the cleanup spot and Martinez hitting fifth.  I think this should put the fear of god in the hearts of opposing pitchers.  Martinez has had a whole season to recover and work that knee so he should be ready for the start of the 2013 season, although one never knows what might happen, especially with ACLs

      If Rondon lives up to Dombrowski and Leyland’s expectations and Martinez remains healthy and has a decent season and there are no surprises in other areas ie: injuries or poor play then the Tigers should be able to return to the playoffs and maybe even end the long championship drought Detroit has suffered.  Although over a 162 game season who can tell what will happen.  It will be pleasure and hopefully yours to watch and find out.         

     

Tigers!!!

All I have to say is Tigers pitchers and catchers reported to Lakeland today!  The rest of the players report next Monday.  GO TIGERS!